2024 Predicted to be Warmest Year on Record

According to data from the European Copernicus service, the year 2024 could be the warmest on record. The forecast indicates it will be the first year with a global average temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This prediction was released following the second warmest October on record.

Potential Temperature Increase

Based on observations from the first 10 months of this year, it’s almost certain that 2024 will surpass previous records, marking the first year that global temperatures will rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The Copernicus’ ERA5 database suggests that warming could even exceed 1.55°C during the calendar year.

This milestone in the global temperature record should trigger increased ambition for climate change mitigation efforts, particularly at the upcoming climate change conference, COP29.

Climate Change Conference and Global Warming

The upcoming COP29, set to start on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan, will focus on establishing new financing targets. These targets aim to assist developing countries in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change. The conference will occur amidst the potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, who has previously described climate change as a “hoax”.

According to Copernicus, October was the second warmest month on record, with an average temperature of 15.25°C. This is 1.65°C warmer than pre-industrial levels before the extensive use of fossil fuels caused significant warming of the atmosphere and oceans.

Global Warming and the Paris Agreement

This marks the 15th month in a 16-month span where the average temperature rose by more than 1.5°C. This figure aligns with the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which seeks to keep global warming well below 2°C and continue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The historic agreement focuses on long-term climate trends, requiring the average temperature to remain above 1.5°C of warming for 20-30 years before it is considered exceeded.

Climate Change Effects

Despite these efforts, current policies may result in a “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C over the century, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Even with all the promises made, the global average temperature could still rise by 2.6°C. The deadly effects of global warming have been recently demonstrated by the floods in southern Spain, which resulted in over 200 fatalities.

Copernicus highlights that rainfall in October was above average not just in the Iberian Peninsula, but also in France, northern Italy, and Norway. Most scientists agree that climate change has resulted in more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events worldwide.