Learning from Vietnam: A Plan for Ukraine to Defeat Russia
A Ukrainian security expert believes that Ukraine and its Western allies can defeat Russia by learning from America’s failures in the Vietnam War. Drawing parallels between the two conflicts, former top Ukrainian security official and current analyst for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Oleksandr Daniliuk, suggests a strategy that could force Russia to make peace within two years.
Parallels Between Vietnam and Ukraine
The North Vietnamese, similar to Ukraine today, faced a supremely powerful American military force. By using strategies backed by significant military aid from the Soviet Union and China, the North Vietnamese were able to resist. Daniliuk posits that Ukraine could use similar strategies to force a Russian withdrawal.
“The example of the Vietnam War is important primarily because Ukraine’s victory is possible only if Russian troops are withdrawn from its territory,” Daniliuk said. “Creating conditions in which Russia is unable and unwilling to continue the war, thus being forced to leave Ukraine, should be the strategic goal of the pro-Ukraine coalition.”
Applying the USSR’s Multi-Dimensional Strategy
Daniliuk suggests that the first component of the strategy would be to stabilize the frontline and prevent Russian troops from carrying out successful offensive actions. This would involve countering guided bomb attacks that devastate Ukrainian positions on the frontline. Instead of trying to stop the bombs themselves, Daniliuk suggests that the West provide more fighter jets equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles to shoot down Russian planes before they can launch guided bombs.
Additionally, if the West is willing to invest “a few billion dollars”, Ukraine could produce enough long-range Neptune cruise missiles to destroy Russian air bases and planes from which bomb attacks are launched. These weapons would force Russia to redeploy air defense systems, such as the S-300 and S-400 missiles, from Ukraine back to Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine would need to maximize Russian casualties to force the Kremlin to mobilize new troops, which could be highly unpopular.
Bankrupting Russia’s War Effort
Economically, Daniliuk advises Westerners to bankrupt Russia’s war effort by reducing the price of oil, which provides much of Russia’s revenue. This would require other nations to increase oil production to lower prices.
“It must be recognized that attempts to apply restrictions on the price of Russian oil alone have not been successful, and without replacing Russia’s share of the world market by increasing production elsewhere, the situation will remain favorable to Moscow,” Daniliuk said.
Leveraging Anti-War Sentiments in Russia
Psychologically, the West should leverage the anti-war sentiments among Russians – sentiments that are present but strongly suppressed by Vladimir Putin’s government. “The only explanation for the lack of a mass anti-war movement and large-scale protests is the absence of an organized and popular opposition in Russia,” Daniliuk said. “Under such conditions, there is no alternative to organizational and financial support of such a movement in Russia’s business.”
In conclusion, while Daniliuk’s plan is ambitious and comes with its own set of challenges, it presents a strategic approach to force Russia to end the war. Without such a strategy, Daniliuk warns, the result will be the exhaustion of Ukraine and the West, allowing Russia to implement its own multidimensional plan to end support for Ukraine.
