ATACMS Missiles and the Fate of War
The United States has authorized Ukraine to attack Russian territory with ATACMS missiles, which it supplies to Kiev, according to US media. However, the potential impact of this decision is complex.
Limited Impact of ATACMS Missiles
Firstly, the amount of ATACMS that Ukraine can receive is limited. Accordingly, even if Kiev is able to strike inside Russia, the change on the battlefield will not be immediate. Despite the range of these missiles being 100 kilometers longer, the volume of ATACMS missiles is insufficient to significantly alter the course of the war.
Use of Cheaper, Domestically-Made Drones
Secondly, Ukraine has managed to penetrate deeper inside Russia using cheaper, domestically-made drones, the development of which has been supported by the United States. These devices have reportedly caused significant damage to Moscow’s airports and Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Provocative Nature of American Precision Missiles
Thirdly, the use of American precision missiles to strike deeper inside Russia is inherently provocative. While Moscow is currently weak militarily, the Kremlin will seek to re-establish its deterrent, potentially leading to retaliation. Accusations have been made that Moscow’s intelligence services have sabotaged civilian targets in Europe, thereby escalating the situation.
Biden Administration’s Strategy
The Biden administration has been cautious in weighing the practical utility of longer-range strikes against the potential for civilian collateral damage in NATO member states, should Russia retaliate. The broader objective appears to have been to encourage the Biden administration to become more involved in the war in Ukraine.
The White House has underscored that the deployment of North Korean troops in Kursk has influenced its decision, viewing this as a response to Moscow’s escalation. The North Korean deployment represents the broadening of the conflict in Ukraine and turning it into a more global issue. The delay in granting this permission only adds to the power of the decision, raising the stakes of the war.
Conclusion
The decision to authorize Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against Russia is a significant development. However, due to the limited number of missiles, the damage caused by domestically-produced drones, and the potential for escalation, the overall impact of this move is complex and may not significantly alter the course of the war.
